Table of Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables x
Part 1 The stakes
Introduction 3
1 Standing at the Precipice 11
How We Got Here 12
Where We Might Go 20
The Precipice 22
2 Existential Risk 35
Understanding Existential Risk 36
Looking to the Present 42
Looking to Our Future 43
Looking to Our Past 49
Civilizational Virtues 52
Cosmic Significance 53
Uncertainty 56
Our Neglect of Existential Risks 57
Part 2 The risks
3 Natural Risks 67
Asteroids & Comets 67
Supervolcanic Eruptions 74
Stellar Explosions 77
Other Natural Risks 79
The Total Natural Risk 80
4 Anthropogenic Risks 89
Nuclear Weapons 90
Climate Change 102
Environmental Damage 113
5 Future Risks 121
Pandemics 124
Unaligned Artificial Intelligence 138
Dystopian Scenarios 153
Other Risks 158
Part 3 The path forward
6 The Risk Landscape 165
Quantifying the Risks 165
Combining and Comparing Risks 173
Risk Factors 175
Which Risks? 180
7 Safeguarding Humanity 187
Grand Strategy for Humanity 189
Risks Without Precedent 195
International Coordination 199
Technological Progress 205
Research on Existential Risk 210
What You Can Do 214
8 Our Potential 217
Duration 218
Scale 226
Quality 235
Choices 239
Resources 243
Acknowledgments 245
Appendices 251
Further Reading 285
Notes 289
Bibliography 423
Index 461